How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method

                

 

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now http://1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules?

For each team work out the following,
1.Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games.
2.Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.
3.Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100.
4.Calculate the forecast value.

In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.

The forecast value is calculated like this...

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games

HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...

1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw.
2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values.

By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws.

What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.

Here is a worked example?

The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on.

West Ham
H4 = 3 (oldest match)
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0 (most recent match)

Leeds Utd
A4 = 1 (oldest match)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3 (most recent match)

Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...

FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59
FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42

If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now it?s your turn?

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you?re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method
Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method

                

 

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles will help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the well known Score Prediction method. The Score Prediction method uses a teams goal performances over a specified period of time in order to predict the score of the game concerned.

Here are the basic rules?
As an example of the Score Prediction method this is how Footyforecast and 1X2Monster handle this method. This is an example of a match and each teams respective goal count for the last five games:

home team 3-3 1-0 4-1 0-2 2-1
away team 0-1 2-2 0-3 6-0 1-3

We can work out some figures from this as follows:

home teams goals scored for = HGF = 3 + 1 + 4 + 0 + 2 = 10
away teams goals scored for = AGF = 1 + 2 + 3 + 0 + 3 = 9
home teams goals against = HGA = 3 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 1 = 7
away teams goals against = AGA = 0 + 2 + 0 + 6 + 1 = 9

Now we can work out points for each team based on the goals they have scored and the goals they have had scored against them as follows:

home goal points = HGP = HGF + AGA = 10 + 9 = 19
away goals points = AGP = HGA + AGF = 7 + 9 = 16

And now we can get a difference:
goal points difference = GPD = HGP - AGP = 19 - 16 = 3

Now we could classify this as follows:
GPD => +2 then home win,
GPD =< -2 then away win
GPD -2 then draw.

These parameters are obviously fairly arbitrary but experience should allow you to tune them more carefully.

Now we must use the GPD and one of three tables.
Here are the tables...

Home WIn Score Prediction
HOME AWAY
HGSP GOALS AGSP >0 >11 >17 >26
>49.....6............0....1....2....3
>43.....5............0....1....2....3
>37.....4............0....1....2....3
>30.....3............0....1....2
>23.....2............0....1
>0.......1............0

Away WIn Score Prediction
AWAY HOME
AGSP GOALS HGSP >23 >18 >13 >0
>34.....5............3....2....1....0
>29.....4............3....2....1....0
>24.....3..................2....1....0
>18.....2..................2....1....0
>0.......1..................2....1....0

Draw Score Prediction
HOME + AWAY SCORE
....>44.........3-3
....>34.........2-2
....>24.........1-1
....>0...........0-0

Since our match has generated a home win prediction then we must use the HOME WIN SCORE PREDICTION table to obtain our score prediction. To do this we need to calculate another parameter, that of home goal score points as follows:

HGSP = HGP + all goals scored by home team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the away side of 3 or more.

therefore HGSP = 19 + 7 + 6 = 32

Now do the same for the away team:

AGSP = AGP + all goals scored by away team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the home side of 3 or more.

therefore AGSP = 16 + 6 + 3 = 25

So, in the home win score prediction table we go to HOME > 30 which gives us 3 goals for the home team and go to AWAY > 17 giving us two goals for the away team therefore the result is predicted as a 3-2 home win.

Now it?s your turn?

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Score Prediction method to your data. Or, if you?re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method

                

 

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles will help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the well known Rateform method. The Rateform method has its origins in The Rating Of Chessplayers by Professor Elo, and from the Punters Revenge by Tony Drapkin and Richard Forsyth. The basis of the Rateform method is that each of the two teams taking part in a match is given a point score that is based on their current form. Although this sounds very simplistic, and it is, its calculation is a little more involved.

Here are the basic rules?

1. Each team is given a point score representing their current form.

2. At the start of the season each team is given 1000 points.

3. When a match is played both teams contribute some of their points towards a kitty.

4. The home team supply more points into the kitty than the away team. This is done to reflect the home teams advantage of playing at home.

5. The winning team takes the kitty, unless the result is a draw in which case both sides share the points. In the case of a draw the away side gains points and the home side looses points.

Here is how a typical calculation is made?

home team points total = HTPOINTS
away team points total = ATPOINTS
home team contribution to kitty = HTKITTY = 7% of HTPOINTS
away team contribution to kitty = ATKITTY = 5% of ATPOINTS
the kitty therefore = KITTY = HTKITTY + ATKITTY

if the result is a HOME WIN then
home team receives KITTY points added to HTPOINTS
away team receives zero points added to ATPOINTS and looses its 5% contribution to the kitty

if result is an AWAY WIN then
home team receives zero points added to HTPOINTS and looses its 7% contribution to the kitty
away team receives KITTY points added to ATPOINTS

if the result is a DRAW then
home team receives KITTY / 2 points added to HTPOINTS
away team receives KITTY / 2 points added to ATPOINTS

Let?s look at a simple example of how you could apply this?

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on rateform the away rateform is subtracted from the home rateform and the difference is compared against set values for home, away and draw possibilities.

For example we could make our set values as follows:

AWAY WIN ß -250 DRAW 150 à HOME WIN

RATEFORM DIFFERENCE = HOME TEAM RATEFORM ? AWAY TEAM RATEFORM

So, if the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE is less than -250 then the match is likely to be an away win, if the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE is greater than 150 then the match is likely to be a home win, and if the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE lies between then the outcome is most likely to be a draw.

Now it?s your turn?

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You could also decide not to reset each teams points to 1000 at the start of the season but instead let them carry over into the next season. Another alternative would be to have a rolling calculation where you calculate the rateform for each team on say the last six months.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Rateform method to your data. Or, if you?re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method.
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method.
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method.
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method.
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method.
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method.

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

Soccer Posters, Collecting Soccer World Cup Team Posters

                

 

For every soccer enthusiast, the event of the year is the World Cup. The soccer fans throughout the world are the most dedicated and watch the games mesmerized, and they don't hide the fact.

The Souvenirs of the World Cup

Whenever an event like the World Cup soccer takes place, millions of souvenirs are made for fans to have a reminder of the event. Every conceivable type of keepsake including soccer posters for all the different teams are sold to the fans. Every year the most sought-after souvenirs are the soccer posters of different sizes, which the fans find to be the perfect remembrance of the event.

What is a Soccer Poster?

A soccer poster for each event represents part of the history of that country's team, the faces of the team members for that year will always be remembered by that poster. Each soccer fan wants a little part of that big event to be with him or her forever, and that is the reason why soccer posters are the most in demand item at an event as big as World Cup soccer.

The value of these posters that hold memories of history forever, were even bigger once upon a time, when television broadcasting hardly existed. Every image of the soccer event was treasured and none more than those on the soccer poster.

Of course the power of mind and what you have seen in person is probably the best memory of all, when an event is as big as the World Cup Soccer this is so true for the soccer fans. In years to come, with your children and their children, having these soccer poster souvenirs of such a great event as a Soccer World Cup, you will be a very special person to them for having been there or having collected such wonderful keepsakes.

Our passions define who we are, our minds register what we see. The pictures prove we have seen it and posters make the history come back to life. Collecting soccer posters will make our history book more colorful and vivid, our children and grandchildren whom, no doubt will be soccer fans too, will have many stories to tell about the fascinating, adventurous person you are.

Therefore, while many other souvenirs may or may not survive, the soccer poster will surely pass the time test and remain in the family history book for many generations to come. Images will always be a main form of remembrance. When you have a picture or poster that holds expressions beyond words such as a soccer poster of a winning World Cup soccer team, you certainly have something of great value.

Soccer Posters

Please visit our site PosterInfo-Online for great resources, information, hints and tips for all things posters and Find Your Favorite Posters